Water Resources Management of Hirmand River Basin for Agricultural Productions Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Sistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Zabol, Iran

2 Horticulture Crops Research Department, Sistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Zabol, Iran

3 Soil and water Research Department, Sistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Zabol, Iran

4 Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract

In this study, the water content that is allocated for agricultural productions was
analyzed using stochastic dynamic programming. The technical coefficients used in the
study referred to the agricultural years, 2013-2014. They were obtained through the use
of simple random sampling of 250 farmers in the region for crops like wheat, barley,
melon, watermelon, and ruby grapes under the scenarios of drought and normal and
water that is required in the most sensitive growth stages. Production function and profit
function were obtained from the yield-water-product function of crops using Eviews
software. Expected net profit of the system and optimal allocation of water were also
calculated based on the GAMS economic analysis software. Results of the model
indicates a reduction in wheat, barley, melon and watermelon production area under
cultivation while at the same time an increase in ruby grapes cultivation areas under
optimal conditions. The results showed that the cultivation of the ruby grape was the
best product with the highest expected profit in normal and drought conditions. In
general, when the expected value of net profit is positive, managers would act
optimistically and they would promise the optimal level of water allocated to the
farmers.

Keywords